Dud Shell Risk Assessment: Mortar Placement

K. L. and B. J. Kosanke

The previous article on this topic[1] discussed the general process by which one performs a risk assessment and then applied it to two fireworks display scenarios. One scenario had mortars of the same size together in groups, with each group located at their pre-1990 minimum National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) separation distances. (See Figure 2 of the previous article if needed.) The second scenario had the same mortar groupings, but this time, each group of mortars was located at their post-1990NFPA distances.[2] The estimated relative cumulative risks for the two scenarios were 550 and 40, respectively. Accordingly, for these scenarios, the new NFPA separation distances should produce more than a 90% reduction in the risk of dud shells falling into spectator areas.